Countdown and What the Hell is the RNC doing?
The campaign junkie is not a total ego stoker but for the last four months, I have been a vocal opponent of the McCain campaign strategy. They are pivoting and changing directions so quickly, I cannot keep up with it and I live, eat, and breathe this stuff. Imagine what the America people are going through.
In the last two months:
We changed direction from the experience argument - which was closing the gap in the polls.
Changed directions to link Obama to Ayers.
Changed directions to link Obama to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Changed direction back to Obama and Ayers.
Changed direction and called Obama - “that one” - Now I admit had he said “THE one” - that would have been funny and would have made the RNC press release seem a little more non-racist and would have tied the campaign back to Obama and his Messianic complex. When the RNC release a press release that references Obama to “that one” - I think that was a huge blunder for McCain to say it, and then the RNC to compound the problem.
Ayers doesn’t work. Ask Joe Six Pack who Ayers is - why are we running a campaign focused on explaining to 300 million people who Ayers is? It is not who Ayers is, it is what Obama ISN’T that works with American people. (I know some will argue that Ayers show Obama lacks character but in order to permeate that level of consciousness, you sure need a ton more ads, radio spots, etc. And I still think it would not work.)
Two weeks ago, I would have said that John McCain was going to win a walk and a short two weeks later I have been hyperventiling into bags that we are going to have total Democrat control. Makes my heart skip a beat even now.
John McCain wins on experience. John McCain wins on foreign policy. John McCain wins on conservative principles. Obama has become a caricature of every Democrat running for office in the last 40 years.
I gotta tell ya, after John McCain openly stated that government would negotiate down mortgages, the campaign junkie switched his vote to writing in Tupper Sousey for President. What the hell was that? We (Republicans) don’t do that, we don’t even think it. That may be the most radical change of Republican philosophy I have ever seen in one minute. I am not sure if that was worse or if he would have come out and said - We should ban all guns in this country and bring back prohibition.
You all know this is a Republican blog, right? And here I am, days before the election beating up my own candidate. That’s because I want him to get it right!
In ANY other political climate - this isn’t even a race. It should have looked like the Walter Mondale/Ronald Reagan map.
PART TWO:
Where the hell is the RNC? I have not seen a commercial for McCain in Ohio since public financing went in. Meanwhile, just yesterday, I saw 5 Obama commercials and heard multiple radio ads (including one obviously from the primary when he was beating up on Hillary Clinton.
The campaign junkie is exhausted from defending McCain. I had lunch yesterday with mother campaign junkie who just months ago was espousing Obama as a great person - luckily since then, I have been able to sway that but I CAN’T BE EVERYWHERE PEOPLE!
What in the hell is the RNC waiting for? What is going to bring them out of the woods and into the fight? The campaign junkie cannot do it alone.
ELECTORAL MATH UPDATE
Since last week, my electoral math/map has been destroyed. Two weeks ago, Ohio and Florida were in tossup status - now they have moved to LEAN DEMOCRAT.
This is the perfect confluence of events for Obama. I thought all along that Obama would focus on NV, NM, IOWA, MT, Virginia, NH - on these states that had the potential to flip from Bush in 2004 to him. Certain combination of these states going to Obama over McCain and Obama did not need Ohio or Florida. As of today, I have McCain maxing out at 247 electoral votes and that is with a perfect confluence of McCain events that BRINGS Ohio and Florida back into the fold and three swing states with two of them being able to swing the election to Obama and a combination of any of them being lethal.
(NOTE: A week ago John McCain pulled out of Michigan and the press went wild but no one talked about Obama leaving Florida two weeks ago. They have probably gone back now that polls swung roughly 12 points in two weeks. Ugh!)
The above sounds like OK news because we are not out of it yet BUT and I stress the but - states where McCain USED TO BE A GUARANTEED LOCK have now moved back towards Obama. Let’s take Georgia. Georgia used to AVERAGE a 12 to 16 point lead for McCain. Today, the average is 7 - take out the margin of error and we could be looking at 3 or 4 points and no one knows what turnout amount young people and african-americans are going to be and on top of that - once close states like NH and Michigan have trended big time in Obama’s direction putting them out of reach.
Look, I hate to say it, but if McCain stays on the current path - we are going to lose. We are going to lose Ohio and Florida. I am just not sure that we are going to get the kind of turnout in Butler/Hamilton/Ashland/etc. that delivered those overwhelming numbers to Bush in 2004 plus in all reality the vote in Cuyahoga County could get worse.
Some bright news: Well, there isn’t any besides we are not out of it yet. We need something, anything, to change the dynamic. Obama is not going to make a huge mistake because he just has to be quiet for the next 20 odd days and win.
Republicans have to perform a miracle and there is no one better to perform miracles than us. Let’s go out there, talk about experience and win this thing.
thecampaignjunkie out…
By the way, congrats to Ben for pointing out all the issues that HAVE NOT BEEN TOUCHED in this campaign. John McCain could take these litany of issues - guns, death row, supreme court and start running with some of them.
October 9th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
McCain will win FL no matter what else happens.